Coastal Cities Affected by Sea Level Rise and Forrester’s ‘Urban Dynamics’

Klimaschutz und KlimaanpassungSystem dynamics (SD) pioneered by Jay W. Forrester is a powerful modelling approach for 'what-if' simulations, with a prominent track record of applications to climate and environmental problems. With a goal to describe the pathways of urban adaptation to climate-related coastal hazards, we develop two modifications of the seminal Forrester's 'Urban Dynamics' model. In their current stage of development, these modifications are tailored to simulate the 'business-as-usual' (BaU) scenario when no adaptation actions are taken by the coastal city. In our extensions of Forrester model, sea level rise and related coastal hazards lead to a gradual reduction of city area and severe damages to urban infrastructure under BaU scenario. We explore with SD simulations both close-to-linear and remarkably nonlinear regimes of responses to coastal hazards under BaU. In the original simulations by Forrester that do not take into account climate change impacts, the urban system ultimately reaches an equilibrium after the transitional period of its dynamics. Our simulations with the extended model tell us a different narrative of urban decline under BaU when damages from coastal hazards are taken into account. We also develop simple reduced models of the dynamics of urban wealth that are in qualitative agreement with the results of both our modifications of the Forrester model. With these reduced models, in addition to BaU, we explore the coastal urban adaptation scenarios

Raketenabwehr und Weltraumkrieg: Eine unheilige Allianz

The United States. government is moving towards missile defense and space weapons, driven by ominous threat perceptions. While missile defense is suffering from technical flaws and cost overruns, the quest for dominance in space by the US Space Command is trying to use many of the developed technologies for space warfare. lnstead of achieving a more peaceful defense-dominated world, this policy is rather creating offensive threats that may provoke an unstable and highly com plex arms spiral on earth and in space, ultimately undermining the security of all states including the US. To prevent passing the threshold to space weaponization the international community could take determined action to put diplomacy in the first place, focusing on nuclear disarmament, strengthened international missile control and a space weapons ban

Challenges and opportunities for historical irrigated agricultural systems in Mediterranean regions. Technical, cultural, and environmental assets for sustainable rural development in Ricote (Murcia, Spain)

Research on security-related aspects of climate change is an important element of climate change impact assessments. Hamburg has become a globally recognized center of pertinent analysis of the climate-conflict-nexus. The essays in this collection present a sample of the research conducted from 2009 to 2018 within an interdisciplinary cooperation of experts from Universität Hamburg and other institutions in Hamburg related to the research group “Climate Change and Security” (CLISEC). This collection of critical assessments covers a broad understanding of security, ranging from the question of climate change as a cause of violent conflict to conditions of human security in the Anthropocene. The in-depth analyses utilize a wide array of methodological approaches, from agent-based modeling to discourse analysis

Workshop on "Agent-Based Computational Modelling. An Instrument for Analysing Complex Adaptive Systems in Demography, Economics and Environment" at the Vienna Institute of Demography, December 4-6, 2003

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Energiekonflikte und Klimakatastrophe: Die neue Bedrohung?

During the 21st century the increased energy demand will meet a minimum of ensured energy reserves. The growing scarcity of fossil fuels, in particular the foreseeable end of the oil age, provokes the danger of violent conflict. In a Pentagon study the potentially dramatic consequences of rapid climate change for the security of the United States are described. As global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could increase around the world. Those who can afford may build virtual fortresses to preserve resources for themselves, while poorer nations may struggle for access to food, clean water, or energy. Nuclear power is a complex, faulty and centralized large-scale technology, providing the basis for nuclear weapons development. In order to achieve the transition from the conflict-prone fossil-nuclear to a more peaceful and sustainable energy supply which preventively avoids conflict, a comprehensive set of measures is required, including energy saving, efficiency gains, renewable energy, natural and social guardrails, the improvement of cooperation, dialog and participation among stakeholders

Complex Crisis Landscapes and the Climate Risk Governance: Challenges for European Stability and Transformation

The author, a Professor at the University of Hamburg's Institute of Geography, explores the concepts related to the "complexity turn" in international relations which includes multi-level crises interrelated through global connectors such as financial markets, infrastructures and supply chains; media and social networks; communication and transportation systems; resource flows and climate change.Ope

Limits to the Anthropocene: geopolitical conflict or cooperative governance?

In the Anthropocene the world is facing an acceleration of human growth and its impact on nature. The expansionist world order which emerged from Europe since colonial times is reaching multiple limits (environmental, economic, social, political and scientific-technical), increasing marginal costs and risks which trigger multiple crises, conflicts and catastrophes that challenge this world order. Alternative futures range from a collapse of human civilization to geopolitical power competition and conflict between rivals to disruptive technical innovations and systemic transformation of the economy and society within natural boundaries. In response to geopolitical conflicts and their consequences, such as climate change and the Russia-Ukraine war, efforts of cooperative governance can help to mitigate, adapt to and manage complex crisis landscapes. Instead of an epochal turn (Zeitenwende) for arms race and war, more promising are sustainable climate protection and a peaceful energy transition within planetary boundaries. To further prevent escalating and mutually enforcing crisis dynamics and geopolitical conflicts in the Anthropocene, cooperative governance needs to adjust to the world's complexity and move from a negative nexus of problems to a positive nexus of solutions. The interaction between geopolitics and governance and the transition from risk cascades to synergies is discussed for the energy-security nexus and the climate-conflict-migration nexus. Energy conflicts can be contained by diminishing land competition and biodiversity loss, as well as risky dependencies on strategic raw materials and conflict minerals. Measures for a sustainable energy transition include energy efficiency and conservation, renewable energy and decarbonization, a circular economy and nature-based solutions. To prevent risk multiplication in the climate-conflict-migration nexus, synergies in climate, migration and security policy facilitate integrative solutions for a socio-ecological transformation based on mitigation and adaptation, conflict resolution and environmental peacebuilding, aiming for a mutual enforcement of sustainability and peace

Agent Adaptation in an Urban Coastal Scenario: Applying the VIABLE Framework

KlimakommunikationAn agent-based model (the VIABLE framework) of a coastal city is represented in Netlogo, describing adaptive dynamic agent behavior in a changing system. Rising sea levels and subsequent extreme sea level events incur damages to the city which an “urban planner” agent can mitigate through two adaptation pathways: developing coastal defenses, or as a more extreme measure, relocating vulnerable areas inland. Capital generated by the city can be directed as investments towards these pathways, with the remainder being consumed. The agent’s control variables are thus the amount of capital invested, and the ratio of investments allocated to the two pathways. As the simulation progresses and the system changes with rising sea levels, the agent alters these control variables to optimize its value, resulting in dynamic reactive behavior. Additionally, sea level rise is implemented in various modes, along with extreme sea level events that cause severe short-term damages

Migration

Seit der Klimawandel stärker ins öffentliche Bewusstsein drängt, wird er vom Schreckensbild hunderter Millionen von Umweltvertriebenen begleitet. Schon im ersten Bericht des Weltklimarates (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) von 1990 wird gewarnt, dass Veränderungen bei Niederschlägen und Temperaturen zu großen Migrationsbewegungen führen könnten, die "über einen Zeitraum von einigen Jahren ernsthafte Störungen von Siedlungsmustern und soziale Instabilität auslösen könnten". Als der ehemalige Vizepräsident der Vereinigten Staaten Al Gore 2007 den Friedensnobelpreis erhielt, argumentierte er: "Klimaflüchtlinge sind in Regionen gewandert, die schon von Menschen mit unterschiedlichen Kulturen, Religionen und Traditionen bevölkert sind, wodurch das Potenzial für Konflikte erhöht wird". Sind das belastbare Prognosen? Sind schon heute viele Migranten Klimaflüchtlinge, oder ist das Schwarzmalerei? Als wie belastbar haben sich frühere Voraussagen erwiesen? Wissen wir mehr über Ursachen und Folgen der Klimamigration als vor 25 oder 10 Jahren? Welche Folgen sind schon festzustellen, welche für die Zukunft zu erwarten? Und was hat das mit Hamburg zu tun? Wird Hamburg mit mehr Flüchtlingen zu rechnen haben, und wie kann sich die Stadt darauf vorbereiten? Derartige Fragen sind seit dem Jahr 2015 durch die große Zahl an Flüchtlingen, die nach Hamburg gekommen sind, nicht nur besonders aktuell, sondern zeigen auch die Dringlichkeit, gelungene Antworten auf bereits bestehende und in Zukunft zu erwartende Herausforderungen zu finden, die von Migrationsprozessen ausgehen

Corona-Pandemie: Implikationen für die Sicherheitspolitik

Wie beeinflusst die Corona-Pandemie die Aussichten für Frieden und Sicherheit in Europa? Obwohl wir uns noch mitten in der Pandemie befinden, ist eine erste Einschätzung der friedens- und sicherheitspolitischen Folgen der aktuellen Problemlage möglich. Die Trends sind zwar widersprüchlich, aber Veränderungen in den Rahmenbedingungen deutscher und europäischer Sicherheitspolitik lassen sich bereits jetzt erkennen und erste Empfehlungen daraus ableiten. Offen ist allerdings, inwieweit sich diese Erkenntnis in einer veränderten Sicherheitspolitik niederschlagen wird und ob die Pandemie zu einem Katalysator für die Suche nach neuen Ansätzen und besseren Lösungen wird. Wir plädieren in diesem Policy Brief dafür, aus der Pandemie Lehren für grundlegende Veränderungen der Sicherheitspolitik in Europa zu ziehen